Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: «Sanction pressure will remain the key risk until the end of the year»

Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov: «The focus is on blue chips with a good dividend history»

In the first half of 2021, despite corrections, the market showed good growth. Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich (Konstantin Tserazov), an economist and financier, told in our interview what caused the growth and whether the positive dynamics will continue until the end of the year.

The market experienced several waves of corrections over the course of six months, but managed to stay in the positive zone — since the beginning of the year, the Moscow Exchange index has grown by 14.7%, and the RTS index has added 17.1%. The positive dynamics was formed under the influence of the recovery in demand for raw materials and the soft monetary policy of world central banks, the expert believes. Support for Russian stocks was also provided by the weakening of geopolitical tensions. High rates of vaccination of the population in the US and Europe also brought optimism to the markets, giving rise to hopes for a recovery in demand for raw materials, and primarily oil, says Konstantin Tserazov. According to Otkritie Bank analysts, oil showed the best growth among commodities — amid production cuts by OPEC+ countries, the price of a barrel of Brent brand jumped by 45% to $ 75.

The key risks, according to Konstantin Tserazov, until the end of the year will remain geopolitics, sanctions pressure, as well as the possibility of a worsening epidemiological situation.

Until the end of the year, attention should be paid, first of all, to blue chip companies with a good dividend history. The beneficiary of the economic recovery will be the banking sector, primarily Sberbank, which can show record profits and, accordingly, pay high dividends. In the oil and gas industry, Gazprom appears to be the clear favorite; the potential dividend yield of this issuer’s shares, according to analysts at Otkritie Bank, may exceed 10%. According to Konstantin Tserazov, LUKOIL may become one of the leaders in dividend yield at the end of 2021, it is also worth including Surgutneftegaz preferred shares in the dividend portfolio, the economist advises.