The first quarter of 2013 brought optimism to the Russian market, key indices showed rapid growth.
Ahead of the reporting season and the period of closing the registers of shareholders. In our interview, Konstantin Tserazov, economist, former Deputy Head of Global Markets at Troika Dialog, shared his forecasts for the future dynamics of the indices.
In terms of growth rates, the Russian market in the first quarter and in March was significantly ahead of other sites — in March, the MICEX index soared by 8.8%, and in the first quarter added 5.9%, the RTS index showed an increase of 11.5% in March and by 8.9% since the beginning of the year.
According to Konstantin Tserazov, the first half of March was marked by a general positive for investors and good growth rates against the backdrop of high oil prices and favorable US and European statistics, after which the market moved into a phase of consolidation.
Investors' optimism was due, first of all, to obvious shifts in resolving the «Greek issue» — the Greek government legalized measures to reduce the budget deficit by 4.8 billion euros.
Tserazov Konstantin Vladimirovich: «The forthcoming reporting season of the largest US banks will be a driver for the growth of Sberbank shares.»
According to the expert, in the near future, the focus of investors' attention will remain the papers of Sberbank. The growth driver for the shares of the sector leader will be the upcoming season of US bank reports, as well as the upcoming publication of Sberbank’s 1Q financial results.
«In general, the Russian market is ready to renew its historical highs in April,» Konstantin Vladimirovich Tserazov, an experienced investor and businessman, is sure. «High commodity prices will allow the market to continue to grow, in particular, high oil prices, which are currently at $ 83 per barrel of Brent, as well as metal prices, which are close to historical highs. At the same time, the spring rally will be supported by dividend stories, as well as improving macroeconomic statistics for developed countries,» Konstantin Tserazov concluded.